Kamala Harris widens lead over Donald Trump after debate; 61% chance of victory

Following their presidential debate, Kamala Harris has expanded her lead over Donald Trump in all but one of the dozen polls tracked by the aggregator 538.
As reported by ABC News, Harris’s advantage in the nationwide popular vote now ranges from 2 to 7 points, with most polls exceeding the usual 3.5-point margin of error.
Also Read: Donald Trump on another presidential debate with Kamala Harris: ’Maybe, if I got in the right mood’
The only exception is a poll by AtlasIntel, which shows Trump leading by four points.
Although Donald Trump could potentially lose the national popular vote and still secure the presidency through the electoral college, the latest analysis from 538 presents a challenging outlook for his campaign.
The aggregator now estimates a 39 percent chance for Trump to win the electoral college, while Kamala Harris’s chances are rated at 61 percent. In 1,000 simulations run by 538, Harris emerged victorious 609 times, Trump 387 times, with no clear winner in four cases.
These polls were conducted before the second alleged assassination attempt on Trump, an event some MAGA media claim is not being adequately covered by mainstream outlets. 538, owned by ABC News, faces accusations from Trump of colluding with Harris and skewing last week’s debate in her favor.
Also Read: US Election 2024: Will second assassination attempt revitalize Donald Trump’s Presidential bid?
However, Nate Silver, the founder of 538 and now runs the Silver Bulletin blog, presents a different picture. His model gives Trump a 60 per cent chance of winning and Harris a 38 per cent chance.
Such simulated numbers are questionable, given that Hillary Clinton was forecasted with over a 90 percent chance of winning the 2016 election on its eve. Both political sides are accusing each other of manipulating polls to claim a victory in case of a close election, with many analysts worried about potential gridlock and violence on November 5.
Also Read: Trump vs Harris Presidential Debate Highlights: Donald Trump says ‘best debate ever’; Kamala ready for ‘second’ one
Typically, election results are known by late night on election day, especially if the outcome is decisive. However, a tight race where reaching the 270 electoral college votes hinges on one or two states could lead to heightened tensions, particularly if states like Pennsylvania face delays in counting mail-in ballots.
Vote preferences remain largely unchanged following the debate. The latest poll shows Harris leading Trump by 51-46% among all adults, 51-47% among registered voters, and 52-46% among likely voters.
Meanwhile, earlier, on Tuesday, former President Donald Trump reiterated false claims that Chinese automakers are constructing large factories in Mexico, AP reported.
During a visit to Michigan, he promised to impose 200% tariffs on any vehicles produced by these non-existent plants and imported into the U.S. Trump also asserted in Flint that if Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris wins in November, the U.S. auto industry will collapse as electric vehicle production shifts to China.
In response, the Harris campaign released a statement from Michigan Senator Gary Peters, who argued that a second Trump term would devastate auto jobs and hand Michigan’s manufacturing leadership to China. Peters emphasized that Harris has a plan to bring high-quality manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. and maintain Michigan’s global leadership in auto manufacturing.
(With inputs from agencies)